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Passive Investors should be VERY Worried
What’s your best estimate of Equity Risk Premium (ERP) for the SP500 over the next decades? 10%? 5%? In this must-read paper, Hussman...
Fred Dionne
Jul 15, 20231 min read

The End of an Era
This research paper is about the (slow) end of the most spectacular bull market in history. Don't get me wrong, we are still in a very...
Fred Dionne
Jul 14, 20231 min read


Momentum leads everything
Momentum leads price, which leads fundamentals (macro). As the above chart shows, macro indicators are extremely lagging ones. In the...
Fred Dionne
Jul 3, 20231 min read

The most Efficient Toolkit for Liquidating Government Debt is the Financial Repression Tax
In 2015, the IMF published a working paper with an overview of financial repression that was implemented during the last century to...
Fred Dionne
Jun 14, 20233 min read


The Systemic Bug : Bank runs can now happen at the speed of light.
Today March 22, 2023 the Federal Reserve hiked the fed funds rate by 25 bsp, in line with consensus. It ignored, however, certain claims...
Fred Dionne
Mar 23, 20232 min read

Mind The Profile
It's too easy to get entrenched in a bull or bear mindset. What if you should remain neutral? Do you see further price rotations in a...
Fred Dionne
Feb 25, 20231 min read


Macro Traders vs Tech Equity Guys
The dismal scientists vs the Optimists, the sceptics vs dreamers, risk managers vs all-iners ... watch below :
Fred Dionne
Jan 16, 20231 min read


$350 billion blow to Retail Investors
Investment portfolios belonging to retail traders suffered a $350 billion blow this year as big bets on risky stocks and former...
Fred Dionne
Dec 12, 20221 min read

Could a Rise in U.S. Dollars Trigger the Next Global Financial Crisis?
The Bank of International Settlement just released a shocking report on $80 trillion-plus in outstanding obligations (unrecorded on...
Fred Dionne
Dec 5, 20221 min read

Lessons From Volcker's Inflation Fight
Volcker is remembered today as having the courage to run tight enough policy to break the back of inflation. That is a far too simple...
Fred Dionne
Nov 14, 20221 min read

Near the War Stage - Ray Dalio
Was the war in Ukraine just the warning sign? Dalio: To be clear, when I say that I believe we are on the brink of civil and/or...
Fred Dionne
Nov 2, 20221 min read

Secular and Cyclical Trends
Executive Summary The economy has long-term (secular) trends and shorter-term (cyclical) trends. Secular trends are slow-moving and are...
Fred Dionne
Oct 27, 20221 min read

"This is a Quantum Shift"
Famous macro economist Muriel Roubini, who predicted the 2008 financial crisis, talks about his new book and reviews the systemic risks...
Fred Dionne
Oct 25, 20221 min read

The Impact of the Great China Deleveraging
Over time, we expect a significant macroeconomic impact from China's commitment to financial deleveraging. First, for a large economy...
Fred Dionne
Oct 24, 20221 min read

Troubles Ahead for the 60-40 Portfolio
"It is pertinent to note that since 1984, markets have spent 65% of their time pricing in falling inflation— an environment beneficial to...
Fred Dionne
Oct 24, 20221 min read

Preparing for Stagflation
In this post, Prometheus Research highlights key data on expected rates of returns in regimes of inflation and stagflation. A must read....
Fred Dionne
Oct 14, 20221 min read

Dalio's Bible on Big Macro Cycles
This is THE paper of reference to understand Big Debt Cycles and boom and bust cycles. Famous Bridgewater founder, Ray Dalio, has written...
Fred Dionne
Oct 14, 20221 min read

Raoul Pal Explains his Macro Framework
Raoul Pal from RealVision explains his own Macro Framework with a lot of history to look at.
Fred Dionne
Oct 14, 20221 min read

Strong Winds Ahead
In this video, famous hedge fund manager, Stanley Drukenmiller, explains how the servicing of public debt will reach dangerous levels as...
Fred Dionne
Oct 14, 20221 min read
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